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It’s the Final Countdown
As we approach the first Saturday in May, the anticipation is moving again towards a fever pitch as the horses arrive to complete their final tune-ups for the Big Dance. God only knows what story will be written the day after the Derby:
- Bobby Baffert recovers from heart attack and wins the Kentucky Derby again!
- Michael Matz returns to the winners circle as Barbaro smiles from above!
- Mike Makers Hansen (the Great White) returns to scene of his Breeders Cup Victory and wins the Kentucky Derby.
- Todd Pletcher’s Gemologist proves he is a Diamond in the Rough.
- Graham Motion does it again by taking the Turfway Park express into Churchill.
Frankly, with the way recent Derby’s have played out there could be 20 versions of a story written the day after. But as a handicapper, it will most likely come down to deploying a strategy or methodology that many times can defy logic. I was going through the list of horses that could potentially take this year’s Derby and found many reasons to bet a certain horse and many reasons to not bet that same horse. One thing I do know after all these years is that it pays to back a jockey who has been there before. In a crowded field of 20, unfortunately the best horse doesn’t always win (Point Given and Afleet Alex to name a few). Backing a jockey who can work out a good trip and not get caught up in a protracted speed duel or getting boxed in on the final turn is a good sound betting strategy. So let’s take a look at a few jocks and why it may be wise to add them to your boxed exacta and trifecta.
- John Velasquez: I can’t recall too many races where John has had his horse in a position where he couldn’t make a clean run to the finish in the last ¼ of a mile. He is excellent at placing his horse in a stalking position, waiting until the right moment to make his move. If you look at some of his trips in recent Derby’s he always seems to be in the hunt when it counts.
- Mike Smith: The proverbial big race rider who seems to have ice in his veins and who never makes excuses. Who can forget the day he lost the Classic with Zenyatta virtually tormenting himself for a ride where he lost by a nose after closing over 10 lengths in the final 1/4 of a mile. Oh yes, a year later he makes the perfect move aboard Drosselmeyer to redeem himself in the 2011 Breeder’s Cup Classic.
- Calvin Borel: The jockey who can thread a needle and live to tell about it. He knows the rail at Churchill better than any jockey in recent history. Everyone knows where he is going, but few dare to follow and it takes a whole lot of guts to ride the rail in a field of 20 horses with many drifting in and out as they tire in the stretch.
So as a handicapper, you must also separate the pretenders from the contenders. As you will note, there will several jockeys who are making their first or second appearances. They may be the most talented up and comers in the industry or jocks who just haven’t been lucky enough to get a quality mount through many hard years of riding. This is an easy one for me! Use them in your wagers, but place them underneath. To put your faith and hard earned money into a bet and place it on a jockey who frankly is probably caught up in the majesty of the event itself is risky at best. When you listen to first time jocks talk about getting their big chance to ride in the Derby you can almost feel the excitement and nervousness in their voices at the same time. I could only imagine the feeling when they ride onto the track to hear “My Old Kentucky Home” being sung by 145,000 people, looking around in amazement as they just had their biggest dream come true. Can they win, of course they can, but can they maintain a sense of calm and awareness to clearly think through the entire mile and a quarter the first or second time in the Kentucky Derby? History says no. If you look at the list of the top jocks in the history of the sport (Pat Day, John Velasquez and Mike Smith etc.) who rode for many years before winning the Derby, you will see how hard it is to get there so soon.
So in closing, enjoy the Derby, remember it is one race and there will be many others to deploy your wealth of skill and handicapping knowledge upon. This one is for the spectacle, the history and for a frozen moment in time. So like the first time jockeys, enjoy the ride! It doesn’t get any better than this!